Here’s a detailed analysis of TLKM, BMRI & BBRI from the perspective of ownership, margins, solvency, and recent sentiment:
Ownership & Solvency
Debt-to-Equity ratio sits at ~0.61 (June 2024), near the industry average (~0.65), indicating moderate leverage reddit.com+12nhis.co.id+12reddit.com+12gurufocus.com. Its Altman Z‑Score of 2.63 suggests long-term solvency is healthy alphaspread.com.
Profit Margins
Net margin around 16% (Dec 2023: 16.37%; Sep 2024: 16.02%) . However, operating profit declined in 9M24 due to increased opex (+6.5% YoY), with net earnings falling ~9% YoY to IDR 17.7 T snips.stockbit.com+5nhis.co.id+5nhis.co.id+5.
Summary
TLKM is fundamentally solid, with stable margins and manageable debt. Rising costs and declining mobile ARPU, however, pressure profitability.
Ownership & Solvency
Majority state-owned with a diversified loan portfolio across corporate, MSME, and consumer segments alphaspread.comciptadana.com. Coverage built via increasing loan-loss reserves, keeping solvency (CAR) above regulatory thresholds even in stress scenarios samuel.co.id+2mdpi.com+2academia.edu+2.
Margin Performance
NII grew modestly (~3.8% YoY in 9M24), with non-interest income up ~12.6% YoY, supporting ~7.5% growth in net profit nhis.co.id+5nhis.co.id+5samuel.co.id+5. CASA improvements have helped fund margins .
Outlook
Rated Buy with target price Rp6,550–7,400, underpinned by strong funding, loan growth (~20% YoY), stable asset quality, and diversified earnings ciptadana.com.
Ownership & Solvency
State-controlled; extensive rural and ultra-micro lending. NPLs rose ~3%, but coverage at ~218%, ensuring prudent buffer .
Margin & Profitability
NIM robust – averaging above 7% compared to ~6% industry norm . 2023 net income rose ~17.5% to IDR 60.4 T; NII grew ~8.5% nhis.co.id+1nhis.co.id+1.
Sentiment & News
Market valuation has dropped ~34% over past year, seen as a cheap entry by many analysts . While rumours of ransomware breaches circulated (likely false), retail investors see it as a dip-buying opportunity .
Outlook
Analyses from Sucor, Macquarie, and Bloomberg overwhelmingly rate Buy, with price targets ranging Rp6,175–7,100 .
| Indicator | TLKM | BMRI | BBRI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leverage | Moderate (D/E ~0.61) | Conservative, strong reserves | Large micro‑loans; solvency maintained |
| Margins (NIM) | ~16% net margin; margin hit by costs | Modest NII growth; CASA rising | NIM >7%, best-in-class |
| Profit Growth | Declining due to costs | Stable +7–12% YoY | Strong +17% YoY |
| Coverage & NPL | Good | Good with rising reserves | NPL ~3%; coverage ~218% |
| Market View | Fairly valued (~12% margin of safety DCF) alphaspread.comreddit.comnhis.co.id+2nhis.co.id+2reddit.com+2samuel.co.id+5samuel.co.id+5samuel.co.id+5snips.stockbit.com+1nhis.co.id+1academia.edu+1samuel.co.id+1 | BUY, TP ~Rp6,550–7,400 | BUY, TP ~Rp6,200–7,100 |
BBRI – A ransomware scare saw heavy discussion on Reddit, but no confirmed breach; some investors took it as a chance to buy .
Investor Mood – Many Reddit users express confidence in BBRI and BMRI. One noted:
“BBRI is a wonderful company. Not going to sell until I retire” alphaspread.com+9reddit.com+9mdpi.com+9.
Foreign Flows – Recent outflows from banks are attributed to macro worries and bond demand, but long-term trust remains, especially for BBRI/Mandiri reddit.com.
TLKM: Solid fundamentals with moderate leverage; cost pressures are a concern, yet valuation seems reasonable with ~12% margin-of-safety alphaspread.com+1nhis.co.id+1.
BMRI: Well-managed, diversified, stable margins, and strong solvency. Rated Buy with upside potential.
BBRI: Despite temporary share price weakness, its strong margins, prudent coverage, and analyst praise make it a compelling long-term hold.
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