Here’s a comprehensive analysis of IHSG (IDX Composite) across your requested dimensions:
Foreign investors have been major sellers since early 2025:
Net selling reached IDR 19 trillion by end‑Feb idnfinancials.com+15kompas.id+15batamnewsasia.com+15.
By mid‑Mar, net outflows surged to ~IDR 23 trillion en.wikipedia.org+5kompas.id+5idnfinancials.com+5.
Foreign ownership dropped to just ~2.9% of JCI market cap—its lowest since 2011 kompas.id+2en.wikipedia.org+2idnfinancials.com+2.
👉 Interpretation: Foreign capital remains wary—global uncertainty, downgraded ratings, and policy risks are prompting continued exits.
Return on Equity (ROE) under pressure:
Morgan Stanley downgraded MSCI Indonesia to “underweight,” citing weakening ROE and stagnant GDP premium.bisnis.com+9antaranews.com+9idnfinancials.com+9.
Bank earnings concerns:
BNI, BRI, Mandiri saw share drops of 6–13% amid fears of suppressed profitability premium.bisnis.com+15kompas.id+15reddit.com+15reddit.com.
However, OJK reports stable NPLs (~2.18% gross / 0.79% net) and double‑digit credit growth (~10%) kompas.id.
👉 Interpretation: Earnings are subdued, especially in banking, but credit quality and solvency remain intact.
Banking sector fundamentals:
NPLs are well-contained; credit and deposit growth robust kompas.id.
OJK and JP Morgan remain cautiously optimistic about banking resilience .
Broader market solvency:
No systemic solvency crisis detected; interventions (OJK share‑buybacks, BI FX support) are in place when needed .
👉 Interpretation: Structural liquidity risks are manageable; overt solvency issues are not present.
Domestic policy events:
Market tumbled ~7.8% late Feb on Morgan Stanley downgrade and delays/uncertainties around Badan Pengelola Investasi Danantara (Danantara) kompas.id+14antaranews.com+14xweb.biz.id+14.
Early Mar brought 6–7% drop and trading halt (18 Mar)—primarily due to TNI‑Bill, MBG subsidy concerns, RUU TNI, and Danantara doubts en.wikipedia.org+1reddit.com+1.
Government response:
Closed crisis meeting on Mar 19 at Istana, attended by Prabowo, Sri Mulyani, Luhut, Airlangga, leading to commitments on fiscal discipline and investor outreach kompas.id.
Global backdrop:
US rate and recession fears; Trump-era tariff risk; MSCI weight cuts for Indonesia antaranews.com+12kompas.id+12xweb.biz.id+12.
“Trump, Elon, BTC… Ripples from US stock market” – foreign outflow linked to global volatility reddit.com
“dari btc, aapl, yen… foreign outflow lumayan gede… bobot MSCI di‑downgrade” reddit.com+7reddit.com+7reddit.com+7
“Afraid that IDR and stocks especially BUMN will plummet due to mismanagement and unchecked corruption… rumors of SMI replaced by Pres' nephew.” reddit.com
“Ini administrasj prabowo… bursa asia lain pada ijo semua… gk akan naik kecuali program makan gratis diubah skemanya” reddit.com
Rumors include bureaucratic meddling in SOEs, Danantara mismanagement, and subsidy program (MBG) funding issues.
Sentiment also spooked by rumors of Sri Mulyani or Airlangga facing cabinet reshuffle and perceived weak communication reddit.com+1xweb.biz.id+1reddit.com.
Investor fatigue is growing: despite IHSG ~6,500–6,600, many retail investors are demoralized reddit.com+8kompas.id+8kompas.id+8.
Factor | Insight |
---|---|
Ownership | Big foreign sell-off; local investors have yet to fully cushion the drop. |
Earnings | ROE weak; bank earnings under pressure, though asset quality is stable. |
Solvency | No liquidity crunch; OJK and BI interventions helping stability. |
News & Policy | Market shook by Danantara delay, RUU TNI, tariff worries; govt responded with high-level meetings. |
Sentiment | Lingering anxiety from rumors on governance, SOE shakeups, political instability. |
Bottom line: IHSG is under cyclical pressure, not structural default. The decline is driven by foreign withdrawals, risk-off sentiment, and policy uncertainties—not solvency collapse. Banking fundamentals remain reasonably sound.
Foreign investment flows: signs of return or resumed outflows.
Clarity on Danantara & MBG execution.
Global catalyst shifts: US Fed minutes, trade policy, MSCI/FTSE rebalancing.
Domestic political signals: cabinet stability, military bill changes, SOE governance.
Need deeper dive on any point (e.g., Danantara structure, key bank metrics, MSCI weighting)? Just let me know!