Here's a refreshed analysis of key Indonesian stocks across ownership trends, margin performance, solvency, and the latest market news and investor sentiment based on recent data:
Interest Margin & Profitability
BBCA: Maintains strong NIM (~5.8–6.0%), benefiting from cheap CASA deposits and low credit costs. It's a top pick due to robust net interest and fee income infobanknews.com+12brights.id+12verdhanaresearch.com+12.
BBRI: High NIM (~8.5%) in Q3 2024, reflecting focus on microfinance, but credit costs rose to ~3.4%, with NPL around 3% keuangan.kontan.co.id+3bareksa.com+3keuangan.kontan.co.id+3.
BMRI: NIM steady at ~4.7%, solid deposit growth (+15% YoY), well-covered NPLs (~200% coverage) .
Solvency & Asset Quality
BBCA and BMRI exhibit strong asset quality, lower NPLs, and solid coverage. BBRI, though lending heavily to micro segments, has rising credit costs and coverage that’s lagging peers reddit.com+15infobanknews.com+15brights.id+15.
Liquidity (LDR)
LDR levels: BBRI (~99%)—high but manageable; BBCA (~90%), BMRI (~90–95%)—within safe ranges verdhanaresearch.com+8bareksa.com+8verdhanaresearch.com+8.
Valuations & Targets
BBCA: TP ~IDR 13,000–13,200, trading at ~21× P/E verdhanaresearch.com+3verdhanaresearch.com+3verdhanaresearch.com+3.
BMRI: TP ~IDR 7,600–8,450 reddit.com+14verdhanaresearch.com+14verdhanaresearch.com+14.
BBRI: TP ~IDR 5,000–5,400, based on projected growth reddit.com+12verdhanaresearch.com+12verdhanaresearch.com+12.
Market & Investor Sentiment
Foreign investors are still net-selling BBRI and BBCA, while accumulating ANTM and BRMS bareksa.com+15bloombergtechnoz.com+15keuangan.kontan.co.id+15.
Analysts suggest banks are undervalued yet face potential downside due to asset quality and liquidity pressures—sector rated Neutral, with BBCA as a preferred pick brights.id+1verdhanaresearch.com+1.
Retail Sentiment (Reddit insights)
BBCA praised for “deposit franchise,” stable earnings, and conservative risk culture reddit.com.
BBRI seen as “wonderful long‑term hold,” though some warn about slower growth and higher risk due to micro lending exposure reddit.com.
ANTM: Received strong foreign inflows (~IDR 146b net buy on Feb 20, 2025); benefiting from high metal prices verdhanaresearch.com+2bloombergtechnoz.com+2verdhanaresearch.com+2.
BRMS: Also net-bought (~IDR 84b), driven by gold production increases and bullish gold price headlines verdhanaresearch.com.
INCO & PTRO: Mixed margins–INCO impacted by energy costs; PTRO implied M&A talk from Reddit but needs deeper dive reddit.com.
Foreign Flows: Continued net selling in big banks (e.g., BBCA, BBRI), while metals/miners (ANTM, BRMS) attract foreign buying reddit.com+15bloombergtechnoz.com+15reddit.com+15.
Gold Price Tailwinds: BRMS and ANTM rising on global gold trends; speculative investor interest high bloombergtechnoz.com.
Bank Outlook: Monitoring credit cost trends, BI interest rate decisions, and Rupiah stability will be critical for banks’ margins.
| Sector | Top Pick | Pros | Cons/Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Banks | BBCA | Strong CASA, fees, asset quality, stable NIM | Vulnerable to macro vol & foreign outflows |
| BMRI | Good deposit growth, solid credit coverage | Moderate margins, sector-wide liquidity risk | |
| BBRI | High yield, micro-economy exposure, dividends | Higher credit cost, tighter NPL coverage | |
| Mining/Commodities | ANTM, BRMS | Benefiting from commodity price rally | Volatile earnings tied to global metals |
| Others (e.g., GOTO) | Monitor | Mixed sentiment/valuation | Complexity; smaller flows than majors |
Bank earnings cycle: Monitor BI rate and liquidity—banks may see compressed margins and higher provisions.
BBCA remains standout as safest bet thanks to low-risk deposit base and disciplined management.
Micro-lenders like BBRI offer yield, but come with asset-quality uncertainty.
ANTM/BRMS shine amidst gold/metal rally, yet are exposed to commodity cycles.
For a more diversified strategy, pairing a stable bank like BBCA with a cyclical commodity play (ANTM/BRMS) suits different risk-return profiles. Let me know if you'd like deeper dive on specific smaller names or broader sectors!