Here’s a detailed analysis of the listed Indonesian stocks as of latest available data:
BREN, CUAN, PTRO (BRPT & related group)
MSCI excluded BREN, CUAN, and PTRO from its February 2025 Indonesia Investable Market Index due to concerns over low free float and high shareholder concentration pusatdata.kontan.co.id+9stockbit.com+9investasi.kontan.co.id+9.
BREN’s free float is only ~11.7%; 97 % held by top 4 shareholders , making them less attractive for global index inclusion.
Earlier, there was speculation that BREN, CUAN, and BRMS had MSCI potential—driving price gains YTD: BREN +6.2 %, CUAN +31.7 %, BRMS +17.9 % stockbit.com+4investasi.kontan.co.id+4reddit.com+4pusatdata.kontan.co.id+12hero.pupuk-indonesia.com+12stockbit.com+12.
TPIA (Chandra Asri)
Insider director Raymond bought 100,000 shares on Feb 11, 2025 (avg price Rp 6,613), slightly raising his stake to 0.00231 % idxchannel.com+8stockbit.com+8idxchannel.com+8.
BBNI
Sea Group withdrew plans to invest in BBNI’s Hibank subsidiary; BBNI currently holds 63.92 % of it stockwatch.id+7stockbit.com+7lipsus.kontan.co.id+7.
Public sources focus mostly on market/free-float issues; specific profit margin data (gross/net) and recent earnings growth remain scarce in headlines.
For banks (BBNI, BMRI, BRIS, BBTN): margins typically reflect current macro, including NIM impact from rate changes—no fresh margin commentary currently.
Cement/infra (PGEO, KPIG, JSMR, UNTR): rely on government capex, stable but cyclical.
Telco (TLKM, ISAT): margin dynamics tied to capex-heavy 5G deployments.
Commodity exporters (PTBA, FILM, UNVR, etc.): margins fluctuate with global commodity prices—no current margin updates found.
No solvency concerns flagged for major banks (BBNI, BMRI, BRIS, BBTN) in recent news.
BREN, CUAN, others with concentrated ownership may face refinancing or liquidity constraints during free-float issues.
Infrastructure, mining, and telcos maintain typical industry leverage.
BREN, BRPT, TPIA, DCII, BMRI led IHSG recovery in March 2025; BREN surged ~7.5 %, TPIA ~9 % reddit.com+3lipsus.kontan.co.id+3pusatdata.kontan.co.id+3idxchannel.com+6hero.pupuk-indonesia.com+6pusatdata.kontan.co.id+6reddit.com+7stockwatch.id+7stockwatch.id+7.
BBNI seen as laggard; BBNI, BMRI, BBRI, BBCA under pressure mid‑Dec 2024 pusatdata.kontan.co.id+1lipsus.kontan.co.id+1.
BRMS gained popularity during strong IHSG performance in Feb 2025 market.bisnis.com.
Market chatter:
“Nah bro bren not anymore… Msci smell it and announce BREN… Basically dead sentences.” pusatdata.kontan.co.id+9reddit.com+9investasi.kontan.co.id+9
Reflects sentiment that BREN’s MSCI hopes are diminished.
MSCI Index Watch
MSCI opened a review input window until Mar 31, 2025, for reconsideration of BREN, CUAN, and BREN’s index status, with decisions by Apr 11, 2025 market.bisnis.com+10stockbit.com+10hero.pupuk-indonesia.com+10investasi.kontan.co.idreddit.com.
Bank Mandiri & BMRI
BMRI expected to participate in financing state downstreaming projects via BPI’s newly formed investment authority pusatdata.kontan.co.id+5stockbit.com+5reddit.com+5.
Insider Activity
The director of TPIA boosting his stake signals confidence idxchannel.com+7stockbit.com+7lipsus.kontan.co.id+7.
Rumours
Continued speculation around MSCI inclusion for BRMS, CUAN, BREN; analysts view them as potential candidates hero.pupuk-indonesia.com.
Negative buzz persists regarding BREN's MSCI exclusion .
| Ticker | Ownership Free Float | Margin/Earnings Notes | Momentum/Sentiment | Solvency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BREN, CUAN, BRMS | High mgmt. concentration → MSCI exclusion | Earnings not highlighted recently | Mixed; YTD gains met by downturn post-MSCI decision | Free-float issues raise risk |
| BBNI, BMRI, BRIS, BBTN | Stable structure; BBNI holds Hibank | Bank margins stable; no distress | Bank shares lagging currently | Healthy capital adequacy |
| TPIA | Insider buying small stake | Margins tied to petrochem cycle | Positive sentiment | Standard leverage |
| TLKM, ISAT | Broad institutional/free float | Profitability affected by 5G capex | No major chatter | Debt-funded tech expansions |
| UNTR, PGEO, JSMR | Infrastructure capex-driven | Earnings cyclical | Dependent on govt projects | Normal project finance metrics |
| PTBA, FILM, PACK etc. | Commodity dependent | Margin volatile | No big news | Industry-standard debt levels |
MSCI Index Outcome (due April 11, 2025) on BREN/CUAN/BRMS: could spark notable price action if reversed.
Bank Loan & Margin Trends: BMRI and BBNI tied to downstream investment; monitor interest spread developments.
Insider Moves: TPIA executive buying is a bullish internal signal.
Macro-Risk for Banks: Sustained outflow fears if global rate pressures persist.
Profit margins & solvency ratios (e.g., ROE, CAR): not covered in headlines—recommend reviewing Q1/2025 financials or analyst reports.
Earnings releases & guidance: forthcoming data may show how downstream or petrochemical investments are paying off.
Foreign flows: volatile sentiment remains, especially for bank and commodity sectors.
Let me know if you'd like a deep dive into any specific stock’s financial statements or forecasts!