Here’s an updated, in-depth analysis of IDX: BTPS (Bank BTPN Syariah):
Price (mid-March 2025): ~IDR 895–915 (recent swings between IDR 855–1,430 in past 52 weeks) reddit.com+14stockanalysis.com+14stockanalysis.com+14
YTD performance: Down about 28% as of March 2025
Market cap: Approximately IDR 6.9 trillion idnfinancials.com+8stockanalysis.com+8stockanalysis.com+8
Major shareholders:
PT Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional Tbk – ~70.7%
PT Triputra Persada Rahmat – ~10.1%
Public floats – ~19.2% idnfinancials.com+1stockanalysis.com+1
Treasury shares: Fully distributed as bonus to management and employees in Jan 2025
→ Takeaway: The majority stake is stable, with no remaining treasury—suggests less structural dilution risk.
From trailing twelve months (TTM) data as of March 2025 reddit.com+10stockanalysis.com+10stockanalysis.com+10:
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Net Profit Margin | ~30.2% |
| Operating Margin | ~38.6% |
| Free Cash Flow Margin | ~48.0% |
| Dividend Yield (TTM) | ~5.6–5.7% |
| Payout Ratio | ~47% |
| EPS (TTM) | ~143 IDR |
| P/E Ratio | ~6.5x (forward ~5.7x) reddit.com+3stockanalysis.com+3reddit.com+3stockanalysis.com+12stockanalysis.com+12reddit.com+12reddit.com+9reddit.com+9reddit.com+9 |
🔍 Insights:
Margins remain solid (30–40%), typical for prudent micro-lending.
Buyback was minimal, but dividend yield attractive at ~5–6%.
Valuation is low (P/E ~6–7), possibly reflecting risk or investor caution.
Balance Sheet Strength:
Net cash: ~IDR 2.6 trillion (assets exceed debt significantly) stockanalysis.com+3stockanalysis.com+3stockanalysis.com+3
Debt-to-equity: Minimal (approx. 0.01–0.02) reddit.com+2stockanalysis.com+2idnfinancials.com+2
CAR (Capital Adequacy): High at ~52.1% as of Q1 2025
✅ Summary: Financially healthy with conservative leverage and high capitalization.
TTM net income: IDR 1.1 trillion; slight decline from FY 2023 (–1.8%) but up ~20% versus 2022 stockanalysis.com+1stockanalysis.com+1
Q1 2025: Net profit rose ~18% YoY to IDR 311 billion; NPF improved to 3.36%; CKPN provision down ~43% idxchannel.com
📉 Trend: Profit drop in 2023 flagged by market; recovery emerging in early 2025.
Foreign outflows: Q4 2024 saw ~45% price decline as foreigners exited positions
Declining CASA: Company heavily reliant on costlier funds → margin pressure
Bullish news:
Q1 2025 earnings led to ~17.5% rally on April 25
Treasury share allocation removes buyback overhang
Challenges:
Ongoing margin pressure vs. fintech competition
Technical chart shows risk of slipping back to IDR 1,000 if support fails idnfinancials.com+3insight.kontan.co.id+3idnfinancials.com+3
Strengths:
Strong solvency: net cash rich, low leverage, solid capital buffers.
Robust margins and cash flows; respectable dividend yield (~5–6%).
Low valuation with potential upside if growth sustains.
Risks:
Pressured by high cost of funds and local fintech competition.
Sentiment-driven volatility, notably from foreign investor actions.
Catalysts to watch:
Continued margin recovery (lower CKPN, cost-efficiency).
Further loan portfolio normalization and CASA enrichment.
Risks to monitor:
If margins remain squeezed or NPF trends reverse.
Continued bearish sentiment from foreign investors or weak technical setups.
BTPS offers a compelling value proposition: healthy balance sheet, steady margins, attractive yield, and low valuation. The biggest risks lie in maintaining margins amid fintech competition and stabilizing investor sentiment. If Q2–Q4 2025 show sustained improvements in efficiency and financing costs, BTPS could see re-rating. But caution is warranted until those trends continue.
Let me know if you'd like a deeper dive into valuation models (DCF, peer comparisons), or potential triggers to track next quarter.
Berikut ini analisis mendalam mengenai BTPS (PT Bank BTPN Syariah Tbk) dari berbagai sudut: kepemilikan, margin & earnings, solvabilitas, serta kabar terbaru dan rumor.
BTPS merupakan anak usaha dari Bank SMBC Indonesia (dulunya Bank BTPN), bagian dari Grup Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation (SMBC) dari Jepang . Ini memberi dukungan institusional kuat serta akses ke sumber daya dan teknologi perbankan internasional.
2023: Laba bersih turun drastis ~39,2%, dari Rp1,78 triliun (2022) menjadi Rp1,08 triliun . Penurunan ini didorong oleh kenaikan beban operasional (+40% YoY), terutama biaya pegawai, dan pembentukan cadangan CKPN yang meningkat tajam.
2024: Laba akhir tahun sebesar Rp1,06 triliun, turun ~1,8% YoY dibandingkan 2023 . Pendapatan murabahah (biaya margin) turun ~9%, didorong oleh efisiensi penurunan biaya operasional (~9%) .
Pertumbuhan laba periode Q1/2025 mencapai +18% YoY menjadi Rp311 miliar. Rasio RoA mencapai 7,4% dan CAR sangat tinggi di 53,5% . Ini menunjukkan kondisi operasional yang membaik, efisiensi lebih baik, dan permodalan yang solid.
Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR)
Semester I/2024: 50,1%
Q1/2025: 53,5%
CAR ini jauh di atas standar minimum regulasi (10–12%), menunjukkan posisi permodalan yang sangat kuat.
Rasio Utang / Ekuitas (DER)
Menurut data Q3/2024, DER sekitar 29% (liabilitas ~12,35 triliun dari total aset ~21,35 triliun dan ekuitas ~9 triliun) — menunjukkan rasio leverage yang konservatif.
Data per Q3/2024:
Gross Profit Margin: 26,15%
Operating Profit Margin: 26,15%
Net Profit Margin: 20,57%
Kendati menurun dibanding periode sebelumnya (2022–2023), margin ini masih sehat dan menunjukkan kemampuan perbankan syariah BTPS dalam mempertahankan profitability.
Penurunan kredit macet (NPL gross) pada Q3/2024 menjadi 3,6% (NPL net hanya 0,02%) . Kondisi ini mulai memungkinkan BTPS mengurangi cadangan CKPN dan meningkatkan laba.
Efisiensi biaya berhasil mengurangi cost of funds dan peggeran beban operasional, membantu stabilisasi margin .
Rumor di forum Reddit menyebut harga saham BTPS sempat turun tajam ("pisau jatuh") dan dipandang sebagai peluang 'swing trade' oleh investor spekulatif .
| Aspek | Keterangan |
|---|---|
| Kepemilikan | Anak usaha SMBC dengan dukungan institusional |
| Margin & Laba | Penurunan tajam di 2023, stabilisasi di 2024, pertumbuhan signifikan di Q1/2025 |
| Solvabilitas | CAR sangat tinggi (~50–53%), DER rendah (~29%) |
| Kualitas Aset | NPL gross turun ke ~3,6%, NPL net ~0,02% |
| Risiko | Margin murabahah masih menurun; tekanan beban operasional; mood ekonomi makro |
Katalis Positif: CAR tinggi, NPL terkendali, efisiensi operasional, dan dukungan grup SMBC.
Risiko: Margin bank syariah yang turun, tekanan biaya dana/operasional, serta ketidakpastian ekonomi makro.
Jika BTNPS mampu mendorong pertumbuhan laba berkelanjutan seperti di kuartal I/2025, kemungkinan margin dan aset bisa kembali menguat seiring pemulihan ekonomi mikro.
BTPS menunjukkan pemulihan yang mulai nyata—dengan fundamental yang sehat: profitabilitas stabil, solvabilitas sangat kuat, dan perbaikan kualitas aset. Meski tiba-tiba turun, saham sering dipandang sebagai peluang “buy the dip”. Namun investor harus tetap waspada terhadap potensi tekanan margin dan beban operasional.
Jika kamu ingin melanjutkan dengan analisis valuasi (P/E, PBV), bandingkan dengan peer seperti BNGA, atau memantau sentimen dan trading volume terkini, bilang saja—aku siap bantu!